Get every week's best NFL bets and expert picks powered by our proprietary WQI (Win Quality Index) model. We compare our data-driven spreads against Vegas lines to highlight the biggest edges, track every pick publicly, and show full historical performance. HQ Best Bets will be finalized 12 hours before game time.
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -2.5 | -1 | - | - |
| Seahawks | 49ers | Seahawks | -1.5 | -2 | - | - |
| Saints | Falcons | Falcons | -3.5 | -3 | - | - |
| Browns | Bengals | Bengals | -7.5 | -6 | - | - |
| Packers | Vikings | Vikings | -7.5 | -2.5 | Packers | ✗ |
| Cowboys | Giants | Cowboys | -3.5 | -2.5 | - | - |
| Titans | Jaguars | Jaguars | -13.5 | -13.5 | - | - |
| Colts | Texans | Texans | -10.5 | -8 | Colts | ✓ |
| Jets | Bills | Bills | -8.5 | -13 | Bills | ✓ |
| Lions | Bears | Bears | -3 | -8.5 | Bears | ✗ |
| Chargers | Broncos | Broncos | -12.5 | -5.5 | Chargers | ✗ |
| Chiefs | Raiders | Chiefs | -5.5 | -1.5 | Raiders | ✓ |
| Cardinals | Rams | Rams | -7.5 | -14 | Rams | ✓ |
| Dolphins | Patriots | Patriots | -10.5 | -10 | - | - |
| Commanders | Eagles | Eagles | -4.5 | -12.5 | Eagles | ✗ |
| Ravens | Steelers | Ravens | -3.5 | Steelers -3 | Steelers | ✓ |
| Game | Vegas Fav | WQI | Bet | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers @ Buccaneers | TB -2.5 | -1 | - | |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | SEA -1.5 | -2 | - | |
| Saints @ Falcons | ATL -3.5 | -3 | - | |
| Browns @ Bengals | CIN -7.5 | -6 | - | |
| Packers @ Vikings | MIN -7.5 | -2.5 | Packers | ✗ |
| Cowboys @ Giants | DAL -3.5 | -2.5 | - | |
| Titans @ Jaguars | JAX -13.5 | -13.5 | - | |
| Colts @ Texans | HOU -10.5 | -8 | Colts | ✓ |
| Jets @ Bills | BUF -8.5 | -13 | Bills | ✓ |
| Lions @ Bears | CHI -3 | -8.5 | Bears | ✗ |
| Chargers @ Broncos | DEN -12.5 | -5.5 | Chargers | ✗ |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | KC -5.5 | -1.5 | Raiders | ✓ |
| Cardinals @ Rams | LAR -7.5 | -14 | Rams | ✓ |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | NE -10.5 | -10 | - | |
| Commanders @ Eagles | PHI -4.5 | -12.5 | Eagles | ✗ |
| Ravens @ Steelers | BAL -3.5 | PIT -3 | Steelers | ✓ |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | Broncos | Broncos | -9.5 | -13 | Broncos | ✗ |
| Falcons | Colts | Colts | -6.5 | -6 | - | - |
| Giants | Bears | Bears | -4.5 | -4.5 | - | - |
| Bills | Dolphins | Bills | -8.5 | -9 | - | - |
| Ravens | Vikings | Ravens | -4.5 | Vikings -4.5 | Vikings | ✗ |
| Browns | Jets | Browns | -2.5 | Jets -3.5 | Jets | ✓ |
| Patriots | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -2.5 | -1 | - | - |
| Saints | Panthers | Panthers | -5.5 | -7 | - | - |
| Jaguars | Texans | Jaguars | -1.5 | -3 | - | - |
| Cardinals | Seahawks | Seahawks | -6.5 | -11.5 | Seahawks | ✓ |
| Rams | 49ers | Rams | -5.5 | -4.5 | - | - |
| Lions | Commanders | Lions | -7.5 | -8 | - | - |
| Steelers | Chargers | Chargers | -2.5 | Steelers -2.5 | Steelers | ✗ |
| Eagles | Packers | Packers | -1.5 | Eagles -4.5 | Eagles | ✓ |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders @ Broncos (-9.5) | Broncos (-13) | Broncos | ✗ |
| Falcons @ Colts (-6.5) | Colts (-6) | - | - |
| Giants @ Bears (-4.5) | Bears (-4.5) | - | - |
| Bills (-8.5) @ Dolphins | Bills (-9) | - | - |
| Ravens (-4.5) @ Vikings | Vikings (-4.5) | Vikings | ✗ |
| Browns (-2.5) @ Jets | Jets (-3.5) | Jets | ✓ |
| Patriots @ Bucs (-2.5) | Bucs (-1) | - | - |
| Saints @ Panthers (-5.5) | Panthers (-7) | - | - |
| Jags (-1.5) @ Texans | Jags (-3) | - | - |
| Cards @ Hawks (-6.5) | Hawks (-11.5) | Hawks | ✓ |
| Rams (-5.5) @ 49ers | Rams (-4.5) | - | - |
| Lions (-7.5) @ Cmders | Lions (-8) | - | - |
| Steelers @ Chargers (-2.5) | Steelers (-2.5) | Steelers | ✗ |
| Eagles @ Packers (-1.5) | Eagles (-4.5) | Eagles | ✓ |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | Patriots | Patriots | -13.5 | -14.5 | - | - |
| Commanders | Dolphins | Dolphins | -2.5 | -4.5 | - | - |
| Panthers | Falcons | Falcons | -3.5 | -1.5 | - | - |
| Buccaneers | Bills | Bills | -5.5 | Bucs -2.5 | Buccaneers | ✗ |
| Texans | Titans | Texans | -5.5 | -4.5 | - | - |
| Bears | Vikings | Vikings | -2.5 | -3 | - | - |
| Packers | Giants | Packers | -7.5 | -7 | - | - |
| Bengals | Steelers | Steelers | -5.5 | -6.5 | - | - |
| Chargers | Jaguars | Chargers | -2.5 | PK | Jaguars | ✓ |
| Seahawks | Rams | Rams | -3.5 | -3 | - | - |
| 49ers | Cardinals | 49ers | -2.5 | -7.5 | 49ers | ✓ |
| Ravens | Browns | Ravens | -7.5 | -3 | Browns | ✓ |
| Chiefs | Broncos | Chiefs | -3.5 | Broncos -4.5 | Broncos | ✓ |
| Lions | Eagles | Eagles | -2.5 | -9 | Eagles | ✓ |
| Cowboys | Raiders | Cowboys | -3.5 | PK | Raiders | ✗ |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets @ Patriots (-13.5) | Patriots (-14.5) | - | - |
| Cmders @ Dolphins (-2.5) | Dolphins (-4.5) | - | - |
| Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5) | Falcons (-1.5) | - | - |
| Bucs @ Bills (-5.5) | Bucs (-2.5) | Bucs | ✗ |
| Texans (-5.5) @ Titans | Texans (-4.5) | - | - |
| Bears @ Vikings (-2.5) | Vikings (-3) | - | - |
| Packers (-7.5) @ Giants | Packers (-7) | - | - |
| Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5) | Steelers (-6.5) | - | - |
| Chargers (-2.5) @ Jags | PK | Jags | ✓ |
| Hawks @ Rams (-3.5) | Rams (-3) | - | - |
| 49ers (-2.5) @ Cards | 49ers (-7.5) | 49ers | ✓ |
| Ravens (-7.5) @ Browns | Ravens (-3) | Browns | ✓ |
| Chiefs (-3.5) @ Broncos | Broncos (-4.5) | Broncos | ✓ |
| Lions @ Eagles (-2.5) | Eagles (-9) | Eagles | ✓ |
| Cowboys (-3.5) @ Raiders | PK | Raiders | ✗ |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | Texans | Bills | -5.5 | Texans -3 | Texans | ✓ |
| Steelers | Bears | Bears | 3 | Steelers -2.5 | Steelers | |
| Patriots | Bengals | Patriots | 7.5 | -10.5 | Patriots | ✗ |
| Giants | Lions | Lions | 14 | -10 | Giants | ✓ |
| Vikings | Packers | Packers | -6.5 | -5 | - | - |
| Seahawks | Titans | Seahawks | -12.5 | -8 | Titans | ✓ |
| Colts | Chiefs | Chiefs | -4.5 | Colts -2 | Colts | ✓ |
| Jets | Ravens | Ravens | -14 | -8.5 | Jets | ✓ |
| Browns | Raiders | Raiders | -3 | -6 | Raiders | ✗ |
| Jaguars | Cardinals | Jaguars | -2.5 | -6 | Jaguars | ✓ |
| Eagles | Cowboys | Eagles | -3 | -7.5 | Eagles | ✗ |
| Falcons | Saints | Saints | -1.5 | -4.5 | Saints | ✗ |
| Buccaneers | Rams | Rams | -7 | -8.5 | - | - |
| Panthers | 49ers | 49ers | -7.5 | -8 | - | - |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills (-5.5) @ Texans | Texans (-3) | Texans | ✓ |
| Steelers @ Bears (+3) | Steelers (-2.5) | Steelers | |
| Patriots (+7.5) @ Bengals | Patriots (-10.5) | Patriots | ✗ |
| Giants @ Lions (-14) | Lions (-10) | Giants | ✓ |
| Vikings @ Packers (-6.5) | Packers (-5) | - | - |
| Hawks (-12.5) @ Titans | Hawks (-8) | Titans | ✓ |
| Colts @ Chiefs (-4.5) | Colts (-2) | Colts | ✓ |
| Jets @ Ravens (-14) | Ravens (-8.5) | Jets | ✓ |
| Browns @ Raiders (-3) | Raiders (-6) | Raiders | ✗ |
| Jags (-2.5) @ Cards | Jags (-6) | Jags | ✓ |
| Eagles (-3) @ Cowboys | Eagles (-7.5) | Eagles | ✗ |
| Falcons @ Saints (-1.5) | Saints (-4.5) | Saints | ✗ |
| Bucs @ Rams (-7) | Rams (-8.5) | - | - |
| Panthers @ 49ers (-7.5) | 49ers (-8) | - | - |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | Lions | Lions | -2.5 | -2.5 | - | - |
| Chiefs | Cowboys | Chiefs | -3.5 | -2 | - | - |
| Bengals | Ravens | Ravens | -7 | -8 | - | - |
| Bears | Eagles | Eagles | -7 | -8 | - | - |
| Cardinals | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -3.5 | -10.5 | Buccaneers | ✗ |
| Texans | Colts | Colts | -3.5 | -1 | Texans | ✓ |
| Falcons | Jets | Falcons | -3 | -2 | - | - |
| Saints | Dolphins | Dolphins | -5.5 | -4 | - | - |
| Jaguars | Titans | Jaguars | -6 | -6.5 | - | - |
| Rams | Panthers | Rams | -10.5 | -9.5 | - | - |
| 49ers | Browns | 49ers | -5.5 | -9 | 49ers | ✓ |
| Vikings | Seahawks | Seahawks | -11.5 | -8.5 | Vikings | ✗ |
| Raiders | Chargers | Chargers | -9.5 | -8.5 | - | - |
| Bills | Steelers | Bills | -3 | Steelers -3 | Steelers | ✗ |
| Broncos | Commanders | Broncos | -6.5 | -14 | Broncos | ✗ |
| Giants | Patriots | Patriots | -7.5 | -14.5 | Patriots | ✓ |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions (-2.5) | Lions (-2.5) | - | - |
| Chiefs (-3.5) @ Cowboys | Cowboys (-2) | - | - |
| Bengals @ Ravens (-7) | Ravens (-8) | - | - |
| Bears @ Eagles (-7) | Eagles (-8) | - | - |
| Cards @ Bucs (-3.5) | Bucs (-10.5) | Bucs | ✗ |
| Texans @ Colts (-3.5) | Colts (-1) | Texans | ✓ |
| Falcons (-3) @ Jets | Falcons (-2) | - | - |
| Saints @ Dolphins (-5.5) | Dolphins (-4) | - | - |
| Jags (-6) @ Titans | Jags (-6.5) | - | - |
| Rams (-10.5) @ Panthers | Rams (-9.5) | - | - |
| 49ers (-5.5) @ Browns | 49ers (-9) | 49ers | ✓ |
| Vikings @ Hawks (-11.5) | Hawks (-8.5) | Vikings | ✗ |
| Raiders @ Chargers (-9.5) | Chargers (-8.5) | - | - |
| Bills (-3) @ Steelers | Steelers (-3) | Steelers | ✗ |
| Broncos (-6.5) @ Cmders | Broncos (-14) | Broncos | ✗ |
| Giants @ Patriots (-7.5) | Patriots (-14.5) | Patriots | ✓ |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | Lions | Lions | -3 | PK | Cowboys | ✗ |
| Seahawks | Falcons | Seahawks | -6.5 | -10.5 | Seahawks | ✓ |
| Bengals | Bills | Bills | -6 | -6.5 | - | - |
| Titans | Browns | Browns | -4.5 | Titans -1 | Titans | ✓ |
| Commanders | Vikings | Commanders | -1.5 | Vikings -5.5 | Vikings | ✓ |
| Dolphins | Jets | Dolphins | -2.5 | PK | Jets | ✗ |
| Saints | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -8.5 | -12 | Buccaneers | ✗ |
| Colts | Jaguars | Colts | -1.5 | Jaguars -3.5 | Jaguars | ✓ |
| Steelers | Ravens | Ravens | -6 | -1.5 | Steelers | ✓ |
| Broncos | Raiders | Broncos | -7.5 | -16 | Broncos | ✗ |
| Bears | Packers | Packers | -7 | PK | Bears | - |
| Rams | Cardinals | Rams | -9.5 | -11.5 | - | - |
| Texans | Chiefs | Chiefs | -3.5 | Texans -5.5 | Texans | ✓ |
| Eagles | Chargers | Eagles | -2.5 | -3.5 | - | - |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions (-3) | PK | Cowboys | ✗ |
| Hawks (-6.5) @ Falcons | Hawks (-10.5) | Hawks | ✓ |
| Bengals @ Bills (-6) | Bills (-6.5) | - | - |
| Titans @ Browns (-4.5) | Titans (-1) | Titans | ✓ |
| Cmders (-1.5) @ Vikings | Vikings (-5.5) | Vikings | ✓ |
| Dolphins (-2.5) @ Jets | PK | Jets | ✗ |
| Saints @ Bucs (-8.5) | Bucs (-12) | Bucs | ✗ |
| Colts (-1.5) @ Jags | Jags (-3.5) | Jags | ✓ |
| Steelers @ Ravens (-6) | Ravens (-1.5) | Steelers | ✓ |
| Broncos (-7.5) @ Raiders | Broncos (-16) | Broncos | ✗ |
| Bears @ Packers (-7) | PK | Bears | - |
| Rams (-9.5) @ Cards | Rams (-11.5) | - | - |
| Texans @ Chiefs (-3.5) | Texans (-5.5) | Texans | ✓ |
| Eagles (-2.5) @ Chargers | Eagles (-3.5) | - | - |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | Commanders | Cowboys | -7 | -4 | Commanders | - |
| Lions | Vikings | Lions | -6 | -1 | Vikings | ✓ |
| Broncos | Chiefs | Broncos | -13.5 | -6.5 | Chiefs | ✓ |
| Texans | Chargers | Chargers | -1.5 | PK | - | - |
| Ravens | Packers | Packers | -3 | -5.5 | Packers | ✗ |
| Cardinals | Bengals | Bengals | -7 | -5 | - | - |
| Steelers | Browns | Steelers | -3.5 | -8 | Steelers | ✗ |
| Saints | Titans | Saints | -2.5 | -2 | - | - |
| Jaguars | Colts | Jaguars | -6 | -3.5 | Colts | - |
| Buccaneers | Dolphins | Buccaneers | -5.5 | -2 | Dolphins | ✓ |
| Patriots | Jets | Patriots | -13 | -8 | Jets | ✗ |
| Seahawks | Panthers | Seahawks | -7 | -5.5 | - | - |
| Giants | Raiders | Raiders | -1.5 | PK | - | - |
| Eagles | Bills | Bills | -1.5 | -2.5 | - | - |
| Bears | 49ers | 49ers | -3 | -3.5 | - | - |
| Rams | < td class="falcons">FalconsRams | -8.5 | -8.5 | - | - |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys (-7) @ Cmders | -4 | Commanders | - |
| Lions (-6) @ Vikings | -1 | Vikings | ✓ |
| Broncos (-13.5) @ Chiefs | -6.5 | Chiefs | ✓ |
| Texans @ Chargers (-1.5) | PK | - | - |
| Ravens @ Packers (-3) | -5.5 | Packers | ✗ |
| Cardinals @ Bengals (-7) | -5 | - | - |
| Steelers (-3.5) @ Browns | -8 | Steelers | ✗ |
| Saints (-2.5) @ Titans | -2 | - | - |
| Jaguars (-6) @ Colts | -3.5 | Colts | - |
| Bucs (-5.5) @ Phins | -2 | Dolphins | ✓ |
| Pats @ Jets (-8) | -8 | Jets | ✗ |
| Seahawks (-7) @ Panthers | -5.5 | - | - |
| Giants @ Raiders (-1.5) | PK | - | - |
| Eagles @ Bills (-1.5) | -2.5 | - | - |
| Bears @ 49ers (-3) | -3.5 | - | - |
| Rams (-8.5) @ Falcons | -8.5 | - | - |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | Seahawks | Seahawks | -1.5 | Seahawks -3 | - | - |
| Eagles | Commanders | Eagles | -7 | -10 | Eagles | ✔ |
| Packers | Bears | Bears | -1.5 | -3 | - | - |
| Bills | Browns | Bills | -10.5 | -11.5 | - | - |
| Chargers | Cowboys | Cowboys | -1.5 | -3.5 | Chargers | ✔ |
| Chiefs | Titans | Chiefs | -3 | PK | Titans | ✔ |
| Bengals | Dolphins | Bengals | -4.5 | PK | Dolphins | ✗ |
| Jets | Saints | Saints | -6.5 | -6.5 | - | - |
| Vikings | Giants | Vikings | -2.5 | -3 | - | - |
| Buccaneers | Panthers | Buccaneers | -3 | PK | Panthers | ✔ |
| Jaguars | Broncos | Broncos | -3.5 | -4.5 | - | - |
| Falcons | Cardinals | Falcons | -3 | PK | Cardinals | ✗ |
| Steelers | Lions | Lions | -7 | PK | Steelers | ✔ |
| Raiders | Texans | Texans | -14.5 | -14 | - | - |
| Patriots | Ravens | Ravens | -3 | Patriots -2 | Patriots | ✔ |
| 49ers | Colts | 49ers | -5.5 | -1 | Colts | ✗ |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks (-1.5) | Seahawks (-3) | - | - |
| Eagles (-7) @ Cmders | Eagles (-10) | Eagles | ✔ |
| Packers @ Bears (-1.5) | Bears (-3) | - | - |
| Bills (-10.5) @ Browns | Bills (-11.5) | - | - |
| Chargers @ Cowboys (-1.5) | Chargers (-3.5) | Chargers | ✔ |
| Chiefs (-3) @ Titans | Titans (PK) | Titans | ✔ |
| Bengals (-4.5) @ Phins | Dolphins (PK) | Dolphins | ✗ |
| Jets @ Saints (-6.5) | Saints (-6.5) | - | - |
| Vikings (-2.5) @ Giants | Vikings (-3) | - | - |
| Bucs (-3) @ Panthers | Panthers (PK) | Panthers | ✔ |
| Jags @ Broncos (-3.5) | Broncos (-4.5) | - | - |
| Falcons (-3) @ Cards | Cardinals (PK) | Cardinals | ✗ |
| Steelers @ Lions (-7) | Steelers (PK) | Steelers | ✔ |
| Raiders @ Texans (-14.5) | Texans (-14) | - | - |
| Patriots @ Ravens (-3) | Patriots (-2) | Patriots | ✔ |
| 49ers (-5.5) @ Colts | 49ers (-1) | Colts | - |
| Away | Home | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Spread | WQI Spread | HQ Best Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -5.5 | -7 | - | - |
| Browns | Bears | Bears | -7 | -11.5 | Bears | ✓ |
| Ravens | Bengals | Ravens | -2.5 | Bengals -2.5 | Bengals | ✗ |
| Chargers | Chiefs | Chiefs | -6 | Chargers -2 | Chargers | ✓ |
| Bills | Patriots | Bills | -2 | Patriots -4 | Patriots | ✗ |
| Commanders | Giants | Commanders | -2.5 | -3.5 | - | - |
| Raiders | Eagles | Eagles | -12.5 | -12.5 | - | - |
| Jets | Jaguars | Jaguars | -14 | -16 | - | - |
| Cardinals | Texans | Texans | -10 | -14.5 | Texans | ✓ |
| Packers | Broncos | Packers | -2.5 | Broncos -4.5 | Broncos | ✓ |
| Rams | Lions | Lions | -5.5 | -10.5 | Rams | ✓ |
| Panthers | Saints | Saints | -2.5 | -3.5 | - | - |
| Titans | 49ers | 49ers | -12.5 | -10.5 | - | - |
| Colts | Seahawks | Seahawks | -13 | -8 | Colts | ✓ |
| Vikings | Cowboys | Vikings | -5.5 | -2.5 | Vikings | ✓ |
| Dolphins | Steelers | Steelers | -3 | -5.5 | Steelers | ✓ |
| Vegas Line | WQI Line | HQ Bet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs (-5.5) | Bucs (-7) | - | - |
| Browns @ Bears (-7) | Bears (-11.5) | Bears | ✓ |
| Ravens (-2.5) @ Bengals | Bengals (-2.5) | Bengals | ✗ |
| Chargers @ Chiefs (-6) | Chargers (-2) | Chargers | ✓ |
| Bills (-2) @ Patriots | Patriots (-4) | Patriots | ✗ |
| Cmders (-2.5) @ Giants | Cmders (-3.5) | - | - |
| Raiders @ Eagles (-12.5) | Eagles (-12.5) | - | - |
| Jets @ Jags (-14) | Jags (-16) | - | - |
| Cards @ Texans (-10) | Texans (-14.5) | Texans | ✓ |
| Packers (-2.5) @ Broncos | Broncos (-4.5) | Broncos | ✓ |
| Rams @ Lions (-5.5) | Lions (-10.5) | Rams | ✓ |
| Panthers @ Saints (-2.5) | Saints (-3.5) | - | - |
| Titans @ 49ers (-12.5) | 49ers (-10.5) | - | - |
| Colts @ Hawks (-13) | Hawks (-8) | Colts | ✓ |
| Vikings (-5.5) @ Cowboys | Vikings (-2.5) | Vikings | ✓ |
| Dolphins @ Steelers (-3) | Steelers (-5.5) | Steelers | ✓ |
Our HQ Best Bets are games where the WQI spread differs from the Vegas line by 2 or more points, indicating potential betting value based on our proprietary analysis.
Disclaimer: All betting-related content is for entertainment and informational purposes only. NFLDraftHQ.com does not encourage or promote gambling. Please wager responsibly and only in jurisdictions where it is legal to do so.
Proprietary Formula: Our Win Quality Index (WQI) is a data-driven metric designed to evaluate the relative performance quality of each NFL team.
Core Inputs: WQI factors in team win/loss quality to create our HQ Power Rankings.
WQI Spread: We convert each team's WQI rating into a projected point spread for every matchup, reflecting what our internal model believes the true line should be.
Vegas Comparison: We then compare our WQI spread to the official Vegas betting line for the same game.
Selection Rule: When the difference between the WQI spread and the Vegas spread is 2 points or greater, we identify that game as a "Best Bet", favoring the team our model indicates should outperform expectation.
Goal: This approach aims to pinpoint value opportunities where public perception has skewed the Vegas line away from our calculated team strength.
Every pick and result on this page is tracked 100% transparently. Follow along all season to see how the WQI model performs against Vegas closing lines. Best bets will be finalized 12 hours before game time.
Powered by our proprietary Win Quality Index (WQI) model. We compare our data-driven spreads against Vegas lines to highlight the biggest edges, track every pick publicly, and show full historical performance. WQI Best Bets will be finalized 12 hours before game time.
WQI spreads are calculated using our Point Spread Calculator. Our WQI Best Bets are games where the WQI spread differs from the Vegas line by more than 2 points, indicating potential betting value based on our proprietary analysis.